A Game of Jenga with European Industry

Publication:
CIEP, February 2025
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A Game of Jenga with European Industry - The Strategic Value of Dutch Industry in a Global Context

The EU has adopted an institutionalised short-term view on the economy and a belief that its soft and regulatory powers can be used to discipline the rest of the world into following its route to climate neutrality. EU industry is confronted with the shock of structurally higher energy costs compared to those of producers elsewhere and is now dealing with the potential absorption of Chinese oversupply in many products due to its open markets. Moreover, the EU may also encounter US trade policies, while Dutch industry also must grapple with an uneven playing field in the EU due to national policymaking. 
The window of opportunity to maintain the most important parts of the EU industrial base is shorter than the proposed remedies in the Draghi report imply. Once disinvestments start, the solid looking Jenga tower will weaken and instigate other disinvestments, causing industrial ecosystems to unravel and collapse. This ‘Jengafication’ can cause irreversible deindustrialization and a diminishing ability to realise the industrial energy transition, security of supply and strategic autonomy.  The priority should be to make the EU and the Netherlands attractive for investments again.