Each year, many energy outlooks, scenarios and backcasting exercises are published. They show the boundaries of what may or should happen to the world energy mix. In many countries, natural gas forms part of the transition strategy.

Despite ambitious targets, natural gas may stay in the mix longer, when alternatives do not materialise fast enough or competitively enough. Over the course of 2024, a new trend appeared when oil and gas corporations and international organisations (gradually) revised their gas demand forecasts upwards, and also underlined the long term importance of natural gas as a key factor in the energy transition.

This briefing paper analyses recent projections of a selected group of oil and gas companies with a focus on natural gas demand. Policy measures for the security of gas supply should not only be based on desired future expectations, but rather on a complete set of possible developments in global gas demand. In this way, unpleasant surprises can be avoided. This paper does not pretend to know the future, but hopes to contribute to a sufficiently broad picture of possible gas demand scenarios.