In the energy transition discourse the future is often presented with misplaced certainty about the what, why and how. If one thing has become clear following the loss of Russian gas supplies and the switch to LNG imports largely from the US, is that developments can take unexpected twists and turns resulting in more uncertainty about future pathways.

The key recommendation in this study is for all stakeholders to be adaptive. With the right enabling conditions, Rotterdam could play a role in ammonia similar to the one it has played in LNG: starting small but growing into a crucial gateway for Northwest Europe’s energy system.